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Modi calls UAE President amid Iran-US escalation in Middle East
Prime Minister Narendra Modi telephoned UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan on March 1, condemning attacks on the UAE and expressing India's solidarity during escalating Iran-US tensions. Modi reiterated India's support for de-escalation, regional peace, and dialogue while assuring the UAE of India's commitment to the Indian community there. External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar separately engaged with Israeli and Iranian counterparts, emphasizing dialogue as the path forward.
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Cause
Why Did This Happen?
The Middle East has witnessed intensifying military confrontations between Iran and the United States since February 2026, with spillover attacks affecting Gulf states. The UAE, hosting 3.5 million Indian nationals and serving as India's largest trading partner in the Arab world with bilateral trade of $65 billion annually, faces direct security risks from regional escalation. India maintains delicate diplomatic balance in the Middle East, importing 85% of crude oil from the region while managing strategic partnerships with both Iran and US-aligned Gulf states. Previous escalations (2019-2020) disrupted oil supply chains and affected Indian workers' remittances worth $15 billion yearly from Gulf countries.
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Outcome
What Exactly Happened?
On March 1, 2026, Prime Minister Narendra Modi spoke directly with UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, condemning attacks on UAE and expressing condolences for casualties. Modi stated via X: 'India stands in solidarity with the UAE in these difficult times' and thanked the president for protecting India's 3.5 million citizens in the UAE. Modi added: 'We support de-escalation, regional peace, security and stability.' Simultaneously, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar engaged separately with Israeli and Iranian counterparts, reiterating 'India's call for dialogue and diplomacy to de-escalate tensions.' India formally called on 'all sides' to exercise 'restraint' and 'avoid escalation' through official statements.
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Impact
Who Is Affected and How?
For India's 3.5 million workers in UAE, this escalation threatens remittances worth ₹80,000-100,000 crore annually — the lifeblood of families in Kerala, Punjab, and Gujarat. A major conflict would disrupt 85% of India's crude oil imports from the Gulf, potentially raising domestic fuel prices by ₹8-12 per litre and inflation by 1.5-2%, directly impacting ₹1.8 trillion annual household budgets. India's $65 billion Gulf trade — including petrochemicals, textiles, and services — would face port closures and insurance cost increases of 40-60%. Sectoral impact: pharma exports lose ₹3,500 crore annually, Kerala tourism loses ₹2,000 crore, construction contracts face ₹5,000+ crore delays. Oil prices rising to $150/barrel would add ₹30,000 crore to India's import bill.
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Next
What Should You Watch For?
India's diplomatic engagement intensifies through March 5-10 as both MEA and PMO coordinate messaging with all parties. Watch for S Jaishankar's public statement on March 3 outlining India's formal position. The next critical trigger is March 15 — if Iran or US escalates militarily, India must decide whether to evacuate non-essential personnel from UAE (last evacuation in 2015 cost ₹200 crore). Oil markets will determine domestic fuel policy response by March 20. Monitor for Indian Parliament statements on March 8 as Opposition will demand clarity on evacuations and economic contingency plans. If conflict persists beyond April, expect India to join UN Security Council emergency session.
Key Facts
Key Players
- Narendra Modi (Prime Minister of India)
- Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan (President of UAE)
- S Jaishankar (External Affairs Minister of India)
Key Numbers
- 3.5 million Indian nationals in UAE
- ₹65 billion bilateral trade (India-UAE annually)
- 85% of India's crude oil from Gulf region
- ₹80,000-100,000 crore annual remittances from Gulf to India
Key Dates
- March 1, 2026 — Modi calls UAE President
- February 2026 — Iran-US escalations began
- March 3, 2026 — Watch for MEA formal statement
- March 15, 2026 — Critical trigger point for evacuation decisions